1993-07 - Sokoro II / Ferkessedougou (N. Ivory Coast) : Community Garden Project of Ghent University (Belgium) and Fifty-One Service Club - Local people clearing a part of the savannah (Photo WVC)
========================
Read at : Google Alert – desertification
http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/features/story.aspx?id=887
The future’s bright … if you have the resources
The global population is growing incredibly quickly, and the UN estimates it could reach nine billion by 2030. Kathryn Goodenough and Daren Gooddy argue that the geosciences are essential to making sure the world’s population can support itself while minimising environmental damage.
We rely on natural resources from the ground – aggregates for roads and buildings; oil and coal for transport and energy; rare metals for new technologies like electric vehicles and solar panels; and water, the basis of life on Earth. But what will we need in the future? And how will our needs change in response to developments in politics, technology and social and economic growth? How can we make sure our natural resources are used sustainably? To try to answer some of these questions, and understand the priorities for the geosciences in the future, BGS has put together a Science Futures Team.
The team developed a set of four possible, contrasting future scenarios, based on two important variables: how fast the Earth system changes and whether nations are cooperating or competing. The scenarios are based on our current knowledge of the most important issues likely to affect people’s lives over the next 20 to 30 years. To illustrate them, let’s look at some graduate scientists of the future and see how their lives might look under each scenario.
Global village
Significant international agreements on climate change were finally signed following the droughts and pan-European heatwave of 2012, with richer countries recognising that they must work with developing nations. For Emma, graduating in Environmental Science and Economics in 2030, it’s an exciting time. She can expect to work in a truly global industry, perhaps studying the effects on biodiversity of the new renewable energy power stations now spread across the world, or joining one of the green finance companies that trade globally in carbon credits and water stocks rather than money.
Travel is no problem; massive increases in duty on oil and gas after incidents like the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill led to rapid development of hybrid and electric engines for cars, and much more efficient jet engines for planes. Oil is now largely the domain of the aviation industry, with almost all other transport powered by electricity from a network of power stations harnessing renewable energy sources, nuclear and coal with carbon capture. Some people complain about the pylons and power lines that now march alongside new roads across every country in the world, but in Emma’s view, progress is necessary. The only thing she misses is meat – in the global push to feed the growing population, meat has become ever more expensive, as more and more land is turned over to growing genetically-modified food crops alongside biofuels.
All hands to the pumps
Climate change accelerated rapidly after 2010, with floods in Pakistan, droughts that devastated China’s food production, and heatwaves across the Americas triggering a push for global emissions agreements. But despite the G20′s efforts to cooperate, it seemed there was no way to slow environmental change. Attention turned to ways to adapt to a rapidly changing world.
(continued)
