Read at :
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/09/110922142010.htm
Model Provides Successful Seasonal Forecast for the Fate of Arctic Sea Ice
ScienceDaily (Sep. 22, 2011) — Relatively accurate predictions for the extent of Arctic sea ice in a given summer can be made by assessing conditions the previous autumn, but forecasting conditions more than five years into the future depend on understanding the impact of climate trends on the ice pack, new research shows.
Current conditions form an important starting point that governs how the ice responds to weather in the course of a few years, University of Washington-led research shows. But eventually climate trends overtake that starting point as the primary influence on the overall predictability of sea ice conditions.
“The Arctic is one of the places where conditions are changing the fastest of any climate system in the world,” said Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, a UW doctoral student in atmospheric sciences. “Current trends are so strong that it takes five years to establish a new mean.”
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