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ARGENTINA
Drought Threat Looms Again
By Marcela Valente
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 26, 2012 (IPS) – The low humidity in Argentina’s most agriculturally productive region has already caused a decline in grain yield – in particular corn and soybean – with ensuing losses for producers and the government.
So far, this austral summer’s drought has been less intense than the one that affected the 2008-2009 harvest. That drought, which was the worst in the last 100 years, caused a more than 37-percent drop in agricultural production and resulted in livestock losses.
However, and even with the respite afforded by the rains that finally fell in recent days, grain production, exports and revenue collection are expected to fall.
Cereals account for 38 percent of all foreign sales in Argentina, not counting agricultural processed goods.
“A record production of 111 million tonnes of grain had been projected for this year, but with the current lack of rainfall, estimates are down to 97 million for now,” analyst Gustavo López, of the consultancy firm Agritrend Argentina, told IPS.
López said that right now the “most compromised” grain was corn, with marked losses that could not be reversed even if heavy rains came, and he could not rule out the possibility that the 2008-2009 losses would be repeated.
Argentina is the second largest corn exporter in the world after the United States. In 2011, 23 million tonnes of corn were harvested, and 29 million were initially projected for this year, but López said a more accurate estimate now would be 22 million, at best.
The ministry of agriculture has already earmarked nearly 120 million dollars for an emergency fund to provide financial aid to small farmers who suffer the greatest losses.
Rural entrepreneurs say production has fallen as much as 30 percent in some areas, while in others the impact is much less or none at all. What is certain is that, contrary to what was projected, this year’s overall agricultural output will not exceed the 103 million tonnes of 2011.
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