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Published on 12 Dec 2007 by The Archdruid Report.
Archived on 13 Dec 2007. Energy Bulletin
Agriculture: the price of adaptation
by John Michael Greer
One of the great gifts of crisis is supposed to be the way it helps
sort out the difference between what’s essential and what’s not. As
we move deeper into the crisis of industrial civilization, that
particular gift is likely to arrive in horse doctor’s doses. Those
who insist that the first priority in an age of declining petroleum
production is finding some other way to fuel a suburban SUV
lifestyle, or who hope to see some favorite technology – the
internet, say, or space travel – privileged in the same way, risk
finding out the hard way that other things come first.
At the top of the list of those other things are the immediate
necessities of human life: breathable air, drinkable water, edible
food. Lacking those, nothing else matters much. The first two are
provided by natural cycles that industrial civilization is doing its
best to mess up, but so far the damage has been localized. There are
still crucial issues to consider and work to be done, but the raw
resilience of a billion-year-old biosphere that has shrugged off ice
ages and asteroid impacts is a powerful ally.
Food is another matter. Unlike air and water, the vast majority of
the food we eat comes from human activity rather than the free
operation of natural cycles, and the human population has gone so far
beyond the limits of what surviving natural ecosystems can support
that attempting to fall back on wild foods at this point would be a
recipe for dieoff and ecological catastrophe. At the same time, most
of the world’s population today survives on food produced using
fossil fuels and other nonrenewable resources such as mineral
phosphate and ice age aquifers. As the end of the fossil fuel age
approaches, other arrangements have to be made.
This poses a challenge, because nearly every resource currently used
in industrial agriculture, from the petroleum that powers tractors
and provides raw materials for pesticides, through the natural gas
and phosphate rock that go into fertilizer, to the topsoil that
underlies the whole process, is being depleted at radically
unsustainable rates. Some peak oil theorists, noting this, have
worried publicly that the consequences of declining petroleum
production will include the collapse of industrial agriculture and
worldwide starvation.
Still, this is one of those places where one of the central themes of
recent Archdruid Report posts – the theme of adaptation – is
particularly useful. If today’s industrial agriculture were to keep
chugging away along its present course into the future, the results
could be disastrous. One of the few things that can be said for
certain, though, is that this sort of straight-line extrapolation is
the least likely trajectory for the agriculture of the future. Continue reading “Agriculture: the price of adaptation (Geasphere / Owen)”
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