Exploring the impacts of alternative investments on poverty, hunger, and environment
The recent report Quantitative Foresight Modeling to Inform the CGIAR Research Portfolio released by the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) team (part of PIM’s research flagship 1) seeks to help the CGIAR centers and research programs, as well as donors and other decision makers to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs.
The report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options in agricultural research, resource management, and infrastructure on the CGIAR’s System Level Outcomes relating to poverty (SLO1), food and nutrition security (SLO2), and natural resources and ecosystem services (SLO3). Impacts to 2050 are analyzed in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate.
Key messages from the analysis:
- Demographic change and economic growth in the group of developing countries will result in significant increases in the demand for food in the coming decades
- Food and nutrition security are projected to improve over the 2010-2050 period
- Climate change reduces food and nutrition security
- Climate change impacts vary geographically, with agricultural trade as an important buffer
- The CGIAR research portfolio can make important differences to sustainable agricultural production systems, food security and nutrition, enhanced by increased investments in NARs agricultural research, improved water management, and infrastructure
- Alternative investment options involve different synergies and tradeoffs
- Other complementary investments will also be needed.
Read the full article: CGIAR