Climate Change Global Effects: Large Wars, Migrations, Disease Outbreaks, Desertification, and Agricultural Failure (Google / Scienceheathen)

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Climate change will result in vast changes occurring to the world over the next few hundred years. And many of these changes won’t be physical ones, they will be changes to the human created infrastructure and social systems of the world. Even if the conditions of the physical world remain well within the limits of human survival, the world will no doubt seem a very different place to people.

In the article below I examine some of the most likely, and most important (to humans) effects of climate change. But most specifically those that affect the social systems and infrastructure of the world. Effects such as the likely-hood of large (perhaps global) resource based wars, agricultural failure/diminishing productivity, large-scale migrations, outbreaks of diseases/pandemics, and the desertification/non-livability of many currently inhabited areas of the globe.


Climate change, Desertification, and Migration (Towards Recognition)

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Climate change, Desertification, and Migration: Connecting the dots

Posted by Kayly Ober

While climate change and desertification can often go hand in hand, each one able to exacerbate the other, the role these two factors play in migration is starting to gain increasing prominence in research circles.

“When it comes to climate change we speak more on the impact of it on environmental degradation,” said Dina Ionesco, Policy Officer at the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). “And then it is the impacts of this environmental degradation on migration.

“We speak also on how migration has a climate change impact so we cover the full circle.”

Often referred to as ‘climate change refugees’ – although IOM steer away from this term and instead talk of ‘environmental migrants’ – once unheard of they are quickly becoming a phenomenon people are all to familiar with. Continue reading “Climate change, Desertification, and Migration (Towards Recognition)”

Rainfall variability, food security and migration interaction (OurWorld 2.0)

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Examining how rainfall variability, food security and migration interact

by Carol Smith

The world faces a serious water crisis, warned former heads of government and experts recently in a book that identifies a multitude of associated security, development and social risks, including food, health, energy and equity issues.

“Water security requires long-term political ownership and commitment, recognition of water’s key role in development and human security, and budget allocations appropriate to the fundamental importance of water to every living thing,” asserted Zafar Adeel, Director of the United Nations University (UNU) Institute for Water, Environment and Health, which published that report last September.

“Many still think the effects of climate change will be local, minor and cumulative,” added another contributor to the study, InterAction Council’s Senior Water Policy Advisor Bob Sandford. “In fact, it will not be long before climate change affects everyone, everywhere, simultaneously, compounding every regional economic, social and political disparity.”
Indeed, such insecurity already touches much of the world, as indicated by the predominance of yellow, orange and red on the Food Security Risk Index 2013 map.


DJIBOUTI: Rising food insecurity fuels migration (IRIN News)

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BALBALA, 27 November 2012 (IRIN) – Successive years of poor rains have eroded the coping mechanisms of pastoralists in Djibouti’s rural regions, even as high food prices and unemployment rates afflict the country’s urban areas. These factors are increasing the vulnerability to food insecurity and spurring migration.

The area of Balbala, about 12km outside of Djibouti City, has become home to families fleeing both harsh conditions in the countryside and dwindling livelihood opportunities in the city.

“What we need most is food”

Awale Farah, 65, migrated with his family of seven from the rural Ali Sabieh area, near the southern town of Dikhil, to Balbala three months ago. Dikhil lies along the border with Ethiopia and has a large number of migrants, complicating access to scarce basic resources there.

Farah says that back in Ali Sabieh, residents are moving closer to the Ali Addeh refugee camp, hoping to obtain some of the assistance meant for the camp’s 16,778 refugees. “I don’t know how they are getting along. What we need most is food,” he said.

At present, about 70,000 people in rural Djibouti are food insecure. More than 60 percent of household food supply is being met by food assistance in the northwest pastoral zone, according to an October-to-March 2013 food security outlook by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET).

In the southeast pastoral border area, “households are marginally able to meet minimum food needs only through accelerated depletion of livelihood assets and adoption of unsustainable coping strategies such as charcoal sales,” the outlook says.

The areas most affected by hunger include Obock in the north, Dikhil and Balbala. According to 2010 figures, 42.9 percent of the children in Obock showed signs of wasting. In 2006, Djibouti ranked second in the world for prevalence of wasting in children under five, at 21 percent.

But life in Balbala is not easy, either. “The situation here is very hard. Sometimes we get money from family members in town,” Farah said. “In Dikhil, at least we had livestock that would always provide us with food.” Even so, many pastoralists have lost their livestock to the successive droughts

To cope, Farah has split up his family – two of his children are staying with relatives in Djibouti City.


Deadly clashes over water and pasture in Kenya (IRIN News)

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KENYA: Early drought prompts conflict

WAJIR, 26 July 2012 (IRIN) – Parts of northeastern Kenya, which are experiencing an early drought after poor March-May long rains, have seen deadly clashes over water and pasture, say officials.

Migrant pastoralists from parts of the northeast and subsistence farmers in the neighbouring eastern and coastal regions of Meru, Kitui and Lamu have clashed, with several deaths reported in Meru and Kitui after the destruction of crops there by large herds of migrating livestock.

“We should be assisted rather than being harassed. Two herders from Garissa were killed when they moved to Kitui. They were attacked with arrows and they in turn shot and killed three farmers,” said Hussein Futi, a local leader from the Ijara area in Garissa.

The government, he said, should facilitate peace meetings and use elders to negotiate with communities in areas where pastoralists are migrating.

Tension also remains high in the Isiolo-Wajir border region (central-northeastern Kenya) after the community in Isiolo’s Sericho area mobilized youths to repulse a group of migrant pastoralists from Wajir last week. One herder was killed in the clashes.

Herders in areas close to the Somali border have also been forced to move due to insecurity.

“We have asked those families living close to the border areas to move… They must heed our advice or face the risk of starvation. It will be impossible and risky for us to make an assessment or offer relief in such areas,” said an aid worker who preferred anonymity.

Cases of wildlife attacks have also been recorded, according to Bishar Maalim, a village elder in the Kanchara area of Wajir. “Two children were mauled by hungry hyenas here. People are fighting each other while wild animals are fighting us all.” The Kenya Wildlife Service confirmed the deaths.

Little food, water

“The situation is grim. Many households are currently struggling to survive. They have no food, no milk, and they cannot afford to buy food if it’s available due to the high prices,” Omar Abdullahi Maalim, an official with the Wajir Education Welfare Organization, told IRIN .

“We are providing 64,000 litres of water to 800 families in Kanchara [Wajir South District] and a nearby village. We are getting more requests from neighbouring areas. It has been worse since late June,” said Maalim.

“We only have one donor and the cost of water trucking is high. We tried to ask the community to help but it was shameful since they were the same people whom we offer relief food.”

He said cases of waterborne disease have been reported. “People need mobile health services now.”

Education worries

The migrations could also affect children’s education.


Climate change, desertification and migration (Google / RTCC)

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Climate change, desertification and migration: Connecting the dots

By Tierney Smith

Climate change, desertification and migration, while all separate issues in their own right, they are also increasingly entwined.

While climate change and desertification can often go hand in hand, each one able to exacerbate the other, the role these two factors play in migration is starting to gain increasing prominence in research circles.

“When it comes to climate change we speak more on the impact of it on environmental degradation,” said Dina Ionesco, Policy Officer at the International Organisation for Migration (IOM). “And then it is the impacts of this environmental degradation on migration.


Mali : rural communities are exhausted by drought and dependency (IRIN News)

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MALI: Beyond the drought – “Families will disappear”

KAYES, 13 April 2012 (IRIN) – “It was the drought that made people move away from here,” Ousmane Touré said in Kayes, 450km northwest of Bamako, the capital of Mali, and a 10-hour bus ride across the scorched scrubland of the western Sahel. “There had been a tradition of emigration, but it was when the harvests failed in the 1970s that we saw a real surge in emigration. There was simply not enough to eat, so people took off for France, Germany and the United States. They knew it was only the way of feeding their families back home in Kayes. The same thing is happening this year.”

Touré heads the Association of Returning Migrants of Kayes (AMRK), a welfare organization that tries to provide short-term shelter and counselling to people coming back to this part of the country. The returnees, particularly those from the ethnic Soninké community, which spreads across Mali, Senegal, Mauritania, Gambia and Guinea-Bissau, have played a major role in developing western Mali through their remittances and other cash transfers, giving it a stronger identity and economic base. Many of them are now deportees who have fallen foul of immigration restrictions in France and other countries.

“The emigrants have been well-organized and have always ensured money gets channelled back, building health centres, schools, even roads,” said Touré, but the economic crisis in Europe and tighter immigration controls are having a serious knock-on effect, and impoverished villages can no longer count on the same level of support.

In Mali the three-month rainy season starts in June, with the heaviest falls in July and August. This is the time when everyone participates in the intense agricultural activity of the main cropping season, which provides most of the food for the rest of the year. The lean period occurs in the driest months, just before the next rains come.


A large-scale ecological migration project in China ( Google / CRI English)

Read at : Google Alert – desertification

Guizhou to Relocate 1.5 Mln Rural Residents      Web Editor: sunwanming

Guizhou province will launch a large-scale ecological migration project this year, with a total resettlement of around 1.5 million people.

Guizhou, a southwestern province of China, will invest 1.2 billion yuan to take the lead in relocating 100,000 people this year, and to input 18 billion yuan in total in the following 9 years, to complete the relocation of up to 1.5 million people.

Zhao Kezhi, governor of Guizhou province said, the living conditions in these mountainous area residents are very poor, with no water provision or roads. Also, the local natural environment is rather harsh, since the issue of rocky desertification has become very serious.

It is really difficult to alleviate poverty there. Only through the ecological emigration can the local people become better-off and the environment improved, Zhao added.


Addressing Complex Crisis Scenarios (Google / Center for American Progress)

Read at : Google Alert – desertification

Climate Change, Migration, and Conflict

The growing evidence of links between climate change, migration, and conflict raise plenty of reasons for concern.

By Michael Werz, Laura Conley |

The costs and consequences of climate change on our world will define the 21st century. Even if nations across our planet were to take immediate steps to rein in carbon emissions—an unlikely prospect—a warmer climate is inevitable. As the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, noted in 2007, human-created “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”

As these ill effects progress they will have serious implications for U.S. national security interests as well as global stability—extending from the sustainability of coastal military installations to the stability of nations that lack the resources, good governance, and resiliency needed to respond to the many adverse consequences of climate change. And as these effects accelerate, the stress will impact human migration and conflict around the world.




Mass migrations caused by rising global temperatures (Science Daily)

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Governments Must Plan for Migration in Response to Climate Change, Researchers Say

ScienceDaily (Oct. 27, 2011) — Governments around the world must be prepared for mass migrations caused by rising global temperatures or face the possibility of calamitous results, say University of Florida scientists on a research team reporting in the Oct. 28 edition of Science.


Climate Change and Migration Dynamics (Towards Recognition)

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New Publication: Climate Change and Migration Dynamics

Posted by Kayly Ober

The Migration Policy Institute released a report titled “Climate Change and Migration Dynamics.” The report takes a look at the myriad ways climate can affect migration patterns — “rising sea levels, higher surface temperatures, disruption of the hydrological cycle, and more frequent severe weather events. Whether singly or in combination, these forces will have a profound effect on human settlement patterns, food and water security, the spread of water- or vector-borne diseases, and competition for nonextractive resources (possibly leading to conflict). Each of these can lead to migration directly, as people try to escape the negative effects, or indirectly, as people flee resulting violent conflict or political instability.”

It offers ways to combat more damaging negative effects by: preserving and restoring rural livelihoods and natural amenities, focusing on food security by bolstering agricultural techniques that are less inefficient and water-heavy, and investing in community-based analysis and adaptation through existing mechanisms like the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).


Sudan: Erratic rainfall and tens of thousands of people being forced to abandon their farms (IRIN News)

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SUDAN: Blue Nile subsistence farmers forced to flee

KURMUK, 13 October 2011 (IRIN) – Huwa Gundi, 21, sits on a sheet outside two makeshift tents near her home village of Sali, where her extended family of eight now live off one meal a day. Cradling her four-month-old baby, Fatma, she says her three other children have died since the start of the conflict in Sudan’s Blue Nile State in early September.

“They were sick, and they died; there was no medicine”, Gundi said, adding that Fatma now has diarrhoea and a fever at night. “We heard the voice of the Antonov [plane used by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for dropping bombs]. We know it well,” she said, referring to the bombing of her village, Sali, which she and her family were forced to abandon. Continue reading “Sudan: Erratic rainfall and tens of thousands of people being forced to abandon their farms (IRIN News)”

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