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http://nation.ittefaq.com/issues/2009/12/05/news0974.htm
Sea level rise threatens food security
UNB, Dhaka
Bangladesh to lose some 14,000 metric tons of grain production to sea-level rise in 2030 while 252,000 tons by 2075 in its eastern part alone, putting its food security at risk, according to statistics of Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS). The BIPSS statistics also show that the sea-level rise will threaten hundreds of thousands, if not more than a million, hectares of agricultural land over the course of the 21st century and beyond. A World Bank study on the impacts of sea-level rise in Bangladesh reveals that 100 cm sea-level rise within the next 100 years will inundate 15-17 percent of the country’s land areas, bringing down farm output significantly. Climate expert Dr Atiqur Rahman attributed Bangladesh’s declining food grain output to three factors-erratic rainfall, increasing flood and large-scale cyclonic storms like Sidr and Aila.
According to him, the incidence of flood in Bangladesh has marked a rise by 20 percent in recent years due to climate change, dealing a blow to food grain production in the country’s low-lying areas.
He suggested formulating a farmer-friendly agriculture strategy and providing huge incentive to the framers for giving a boost to food grain production.
Dr Atiq also stressed the need for vigorous research works for innovating new seed variety to cope with the climate change and salinity. Another climate expert and IUCN Country Representative Dr Inun Nishat cited rising temperature as the main reason behind the falling farm output. “If the average temperature increases by 4 degrees Celsius, there will be 30 percent fall in crop yield by 2050,” he said. Dr Inun Nishat said the country’s central part will experience frequent floods while the northern part unusual droughts due to significant raise in temperature, bringing down food production. “The sea-level rise will intensify salinity intrusion affecting food production in southern region.”
Dr Nishat said agriculture is closely related with climatic factors. “Erratic rainfall and deviation in temperature would bring critical changes in rice farming pattern and affect crops yields. Bangladesh is in the subtropical region. So, its agriculture will be severely affected if this type of irregular weather continues.”
He said the variability of temperature and rainfall pattern exhibit early signals of climate change.
AFM Shahidur Rahman, an environmentalist, said climate variability has increased notably in recent times. Prolonged summer and shorter rainy and winter seasons will only increase the trend of droughts and desertification, inflicting an adverse impact on the country’s agro-based economy.
Dr Saleemul Huq, an international climate change expert, in an article said, “With the erratic rainfall, the heavy downpours containing thicker drops than ever, the summer expanding to the point of temperature rising above previous known limits, the impacts of climate change are evident on the farming lands and the char areas of the country’s remotest regions. Many of the crops that farmers planted earlier, on the lands, are not yielding as it did before.
According to UN Environment Program (UNEP), the global temperature would increase up to 1 degree centigrade in summer and 1.5 degrees in winter by 2050, resulting in sea-level rise by up to half metre that will engulf 11 percent land in Bangladesh, affecting nearly 60 lakh people along its coastal belt.
The World Disaster Report 2001 published by IFRCS reveals that 1 million people in Bangladesh will get displaced while 9,000 heaters of land eroded annually affecting agricultural production.
Another recent study report revealed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that the shortening winter season is causing a serious decline in production of winter crops.
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DESERTIFICATION 